There is no denying that we are starting to see the impacts of climate change magnify. Extreme weather events are becoming prevalent and becoming harder to predict. We are already 1.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures, and based on The State of Climate Action Report, global progress is nowhere near where we want it to be. However, among the 42 indicators evaluating sectoral climate action globally, only one sector was on track to achieve its 2030 target - electric vehicle shares in passenger car sales.
This trend was particularly noticeable in Hong Kong when private vehicles reached record-level sales last year. Almost half of all private car sales in the first quarter of the year were EVs. This was part of the government’s plan to encourage the adoption of EVs when tax concessions of up to HKD 97,500 were offered to first-time buyers in 2018. Tax concessions were even higher for those who switched from their petrol-powered cars. Today, there are 62,000 registered EVs on Hong Kong roads, a 91% increase from the year before. According to the government, EVs are considered critical to the city’s efforts to improve air quality, mitigate climate change, and become carbon neutral.
However, electrifying transport has no impact on reducing emissions if the fuel mix is not powered by clean energy. Hong Kong’s current fuel mix is dominated by fossil fuels with Natural gas accounting for 48% of the total share, followed by 36% from Nuclear, and 15% from Coal. Only 1% comes from renewable energy (solar and wind). In 2021, Hong Kong’s emissions amounted to 34.7 million tonnes – a 4% increase from the year before. Electricity generation accounted for more than two-thirds of total emissions, which makes it a sector that is key when talking about decarbonisation.
The government has pledged to become carbon-neutral by 2050, this still means using natural gas as ‘it is currently [one of the] commercially viable and proven lower carbon solutions available today that can meet baseload demand’ (Hong Kong’s Climate Vision 2050 policy document, page 11). By 2030, the government aims to significantly increase the use of natural gas and continue to phase down coal. Although natural gas produces half as much carbon dioxide to produce the same amount of energy, it is still a fossil fuel. Replacing one fossil fuel with another is contradictory when one talks about decarbonisation. Carbon capture is also mentioned as a potential strategic option, but it is nowhere near commercially scalable to the point where can reduce the amount of GHG emissions needed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
If there is one lesson to be learnt from the events in Hong Kong this past year, is the urgency of climate action. Hong Kong is not prepared nor well-equipped for to inevitable consequences of climate change. In 2023, Hong Kong experienced its hottest summer: average temperatures in August soared to 29.7 degrees Celsius – the highest recorded since records began 140 years ago. A month later, record-breaking rain (more than 200mm) flooded the city causing landslides and infrastructure damage. The entire city was brought to a standstill, schools were suspended, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was closed.
In response, the government announced an HKD 8 billion ($1 billion) climate resilience plan earlier this year, focusing on utilising big data and AI to enhance hazard forecasts and alerts. While this may assist in damage control and help residents prepare, it does not address the source of the problem. Artificial Intelligence is a relatively recent technology, and we're still discovering its capabilities. Navigating its safe usage is a current social experiment. Perhaps soon it will be an integral cog in climate change solutions. However, we are living in a moment of urgency, and someday is not now. We need time to figure out how AI can be used effectively with minimal risk, and time is a luxury we simply cannot afford.
As we navigate these challenges, it's crucial to recognize the urgency of the situation. Hong Kong's climate actions must extend beyond reactive measures. While big data and AI may play a role in managing the aftermath of climate events, a comprehensive solution requires addressing the core issue – the city's reliance on fossil fuels for its energy needs.
Posted 14 February 2024
